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Weekly Economic Update - August 3, 2020

In this week’s recap: stocks have a mixed reaction to earnings, economic data, and a potential stimulus.

Weekly Economic Update

August 3, 2020

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks were mixed last week amid a busy week of earnings, some troubling economic data, and seemingly little progress on a new fiscal stimulus package.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.16%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 increased by 1.73%. The Nasdaq Composite Index surged 3.69% for the week. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed stock markets overseas, dipped 0.75%.1,2,3

Stocks Buffeted by Crosswinds

Stocks rode a roller coaster last week, reacting to a conflicting stream of corporate events and economic data.

Investors were optimistic on Monday about the ability of mega-cap technology companies to thrive in an uncertain economy, but worried on Tuesday about pending Congressional testimony involving the CEOs of these firms.

On the economic front, a strong June durable goods orders report on Monday bolstered investor sentiment. But the optimism faded on a disappointing jobless claims number and a troubling second-quarter GDP number that – while anticipated – was a bit unsettling.4,5,6

Following some exceptional earnings results from the mega-cap technology companies, stocks managed to rally in the final hour of trading on Friday. 

U.S. Dollar Continues Its Decline

Since peaking in mid-March, the U.S. dollar has dropped nearly 9%. Some of the potential beneficiaries of a weak dollar are global American businesses whose products and services become less expensive in overseas markets.7

Conversely, international companies may suffer lower sales in the U.S. as their products become more expensive. It’s a mixed bag of potential outcomes, but Wall Street has become more and more focused on the dollar’s trajectory.

Final Thoughts

August has historically been a particularly volatile month. For instance, in 2019, the S&P 500 posted moves of more than one percent in 22 trading days.8

One of the possible reasons is that many traders are away on vacation, resulting in light volume, which may amplify market volatility. But this year, it’s uncertain whether traders will be away on vacation due to the pandemic. Should markets become volatile in the weeks ahead, investors may want to remind themselves of the seasonal trends that may be at work.

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
If your life or financial situation changed notably this year (a new job, a marriage, an addition to the family), then now should be a time to review the state of your personal insurance and your risk management approach.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Manufacturing Index. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Index.

Wednesday: Automated Data Processing (ADP) Employment Report. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) Services Index. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index.

Thursday: Jobless Claims.

Friday: Employment Situation Report.

Source: Econoday, July 31, 2020

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Monday: The Clorox Company (CLX), American International Group (AIG).

Tuesday: The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Twilio (TWLO), Prudential Financial (PRU), Emerson Electric (EMR).

Wednesday: CVS Health (CVS), Humana (HUM), Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN), Wayfair (W).

Thursday: Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY), Booking Holdings (BKNG), Becton Dickinson (BDX), T-Mobile (TMUS).

Source: Zacks, July 31, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“Live in such a way that you would not be ashamed to sell your parrot to the town gossip.”

WILL ROGERS

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

You spend 20% of the money in your wallet. Then you spend 20% of what remains in your wallet after that. You spend $72.00 total. How much money did you originally have in your wallet?

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: How many 9s are in the range of numbers from 1 to 100? (Remember, the number 99 has two 9s in it.)

ANSWER: 20, counting 99, which has 2 nines in it.

This material was prepared by MarketingPro, Inc., and does not necessarily represent the views of the presenting party, nor their affiliates. The information herein has been derived from sources believed to be accurate. Please note - investing involves risk, and past performance is no guarantee of future results. Investments will fluctuate and when redeemed may be worth more or less than when originally invested. This information should not be construed as investment, tax or legal advice and may not be relied on for the purpose of avoiding any Federal tax penalty. This is neither a solicitation nor recommendation to purchase or sell any investment or insurance product or service, and should not be relied upon as such. All market indices discussed are unmanaged and are not illustrative of any particular investment. Indices do not incur management fees, costs and expenses, and cannot be invested into directly. All economic and performance data is historical and not indicative of future results. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted index of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a market-weighted index of all over-the-counter common stocks traded on the National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotation System. The Standard & Poor's 500 (S&P 500) is a market-cap weighted index composed of the common stocks of 500 leading companies in leading industries of the U.S. economy. NYSE Group, Inc. (NYSE:NYX) operates two securities exchanges: the New York Stock Exchange (the “NYSE”) and NYSE Arca (formerly known as the Archipelago Exchange, or ArcaEx®, and the Pacific Exchange). NYSE Group is a leading provider of securities listing, trading and market data products and services. The New York Mercantile Exchange, Inc. (NYMEX) is the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange and the preeminent trading forum for energy and precious metals, with trading conducted through two divisions – the NYMEX Division, home to the energy, platinum, and palladium markets, and the COMEX Division, on which all other metals trade. Additional risks are associated with international investing, such as currency fluctuations, political and economic instability and differences in accounting standards. This material represents an assessment of the market environment at a specific point in time and is not intended to be a forecast of future events, or a guarantee of future results. MarketingPro, Inc. is not affiliated with any person or firm that may be providing this information to you. The publisher is not engaged in rendering legal, accounting or other professional services. If assistance is needed, the reader is advised to engage the services of a competent professional.

CITATIONS:

  1. The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2020
    2. The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2020
    3. The Wall Street Journal, July 31, 2020
    4. CNBC.com, July 27, 2020
    5. CNBC.com, July 30, 2020
    6. BEA.gov, July 30, 2020
    7. Reuters.com, July 28, 2020
    8. CNBC.com, August 31, 2019

Weekly Economic Update - July 27, 2020

In this week’s recap: stocks slip after heavier jobless claims and U.S.-China strife.

Weekly Economic Update

July 27, 2020

THE WEEK ON WALL STREET

Stocks slipped in the final days of trading last week on higher jobless claims and rising tensions in the U.S.-China relationship.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 0.76%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 dipped 0.28%. The Nasdaq Composite Index dropped 1.33% for the week. The MSCI EAFE Index, which tracks developed stock markets overseas, rose 1.24%.1,2,3

Stocks Lose Momentum

Stocks marched higher to begin the week on progress with a COVID-19 vaccine and a string of upbeat corporate quarterly reports. Firming oil prices and the passage of a fiscal stimulus bill by the European Union also helped buoy investors’ spirits.

Market sentiment, however, turned negative after Thursday morning’s report of an uptick in new unemployment claims, which suggested a possible slowdown in hiring. The market was led lower by the technology sector ahead of quarterly reports from some of the sector’s biggest names.4 

U.S.-China Tensions Escalate

Tensions escalated last week as the U.S. ordered China to close its consulate in Houston, which the White House claimed was stealing American information. A day earlier, the U.S. had accused China of attempting to steal COVID-19 research data. China responded by ordering the U.S. to close its consulate in the city of Chengdu.5,6

The markets appear more focused on the apparent deteriorating relations between the two nations, worried about a repeat of the trade battle in 2018. Whether the rancor is managed is likely to remain a top concern for investors in the weeks ahead.

FINAL THOUGHTS

The mega-cap technology companies’ market dominance is a concern to some. Last week it was reported that six of these mega-cap stocks represent 41% of the Nasdaq market capitalization. Five mega-cap names included in the S&P 500 Index account for 22% of that index’s market capitalization.7

Investors have embraced these firms because they appear to be able to show solid financial performance in the midst of an economy coping with COVID-19.

T I P   O F   T H E   W E E K
Periodically review and/or rebalance your portfolio, to see that your investments are in sync with your objectives.

THE WEEK AHEAD: KEY ECONOMIC DATA

Monday: Durable Goods Orders.

Wednesday: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Announcement.

Thursday: Gross Domestic Product (GDP), Jobless Claims.

Friday: Consumer Sentiment.

Source: Econoday, July 24, 2020

The Econoday economic calendar lists upcoming U.S. economic data releases (including key economic indicators), Federal Reserve policy meetings, and speaking engagements of Federal Reserve officials. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions and may not materialize. The forecasts also are subject to revision.

 

THE WEEK AHEAD: COMPANIES REPORTING EARNINGS

Tuesday: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Visa (V), Pfizer (PFE), McDonalds (MCD), 3M Company (MMM), eBay (EBAY), D.R. Horton (DHI).

Wednesday: Facebook (FB), Boeing (BA), Qualcomm (QCOM), PayPal (PYPL), General Motors (GM), Shopify (SHOP), Teladoc Health (TDOC).

Thursday: Apple (AAPL), Ford (F), Alphabet (GOOGL), Mastercard (MA), Procter & Gamble (PG), Eli Lilly (LLY), United Parcel Service (UPS).

Friday: AbbVie (ABBV), Exxon Mobil (XOM), Caterpillar (CAT), Merck (MRK), Chevron (CVX).

Source: Zacks, July 24, 2020

Companies mentioned are for informational purposes only. It should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of the securities. Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost. Companies may reschedule when they report earnings without notice.

Q U O T E   O F   T H E   W E E K

“Imagination is the eye of the soul.”

JOSEPH JOUBERT

 

T H E   W E E K L Y   R I D D L E

How many 9s are in the range of numbers from 1 to 100? (Remember, the number 99 has two 9s in it.)

 

LAST WEEK’S RIDDLE: Is there a way that you can make the number seven even?

ANSWER: Take away the S, and seven becomes even.

Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and tolerance for risk. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.

The forecasts or forward-looking statements are based on assumptions, may not materialize, and are subject to revision without notice.

The market indexes discussed are unmanaged, and generally, considered representative of their respective markets. Index performance is not indicative of the past performance of a particular investment. Indexes do not incur management fees, costs, and expenses. Individuals cannot directly invest in unmanaged indexes. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is an unmanaged index that is generally considered representative of large-capitalization companies on the U.S. stock market. Nasdaq Composite is an index of the common stocks and similar securities listed on the Nasdaq stock market and is considered a broad indicator of the performance of technology and growth companies. The MSCI EAFE Index was created by Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) and serves as a benchmark of the performance of major international equity markets, as represented by 21 major MSCI indexes from Europe, Australia, and Southeast Asia. The S&P 500 Composite Index is an unmanaged group of securities that are considered to be representative of the stock market in general.

U.S. Treasury Notes are guaranteed by the federal government as to the timely payment of principal and interest. However, if you sell a Treasury Note prior to maturity, it may be worth more or less than the original price paid. Fixed income investments are subject to various risks including changes in interest rates, credit quality, inflation risk, market valuations, prepayments, corporate events, tax ramifications and other factors.

International investments carry additional risks, which include differences in financial reporting standards, currency exchange rates, political risks unique to a specific country, foreign taxes and regulations, and the potential for illiquid markets. These factors may result in greater share price volatility.

Please consult your financial professional for additional information.

This content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information. The information in this material is not intended as tax or legal advice. Please consult legal or tax professionals for specific information regarding your individual situation. This material was developed and produced by FMG Suite to provide information on a topic that may be of interest. FMG is not affiliated with the named representative, financial professional, Registered Investment Advisor, Broker-Dealer, nor state- or SEC-registered investment advisory firm. The opinions expressed and material provided are for general information, and they should not be considered a solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security.

Copyright 2020 FMG Suite.

CITATIONS:

  1. The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2020
    2. The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2020
    3. The Wall Street Journal, July 24, 2020
    4. NYTimes.com, July 23, 2020
    5. CBSnews.com, July 22, 2020
    6. APNews.com, July 24, 2020
    7. CNBC, July 22, 2020

Gerald Hanifan is an investment adviser representative of, and securities and advisory services are offered through, USA Financial Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC. www.finra.org A Registered Investment Adviser located at 6020 E. Fulton St., Ada, MI 49301. Estate Planning Center is not affiliated with USA Financial Securities.

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